In the Aftermath of Bashar al-Assad’s Fall: What Sentiment Prevails in Syrian Society?

Is it the celebration of the end of half a century of dictatorship? The horror at the atrocities committed by the regime, particularly within its now-liberated prisons? Or the fear of a new and undefined governance? These are just a few of the pressing questions demanding serious attention.

Indeed, during the night of Saturday to Sunday, December 7–8, 2024, rebel forces led by a former high-ranking al-Qaeda leader succeeded in toppling the Syrian regime. Ahmed Hussein al-Chara—formerly known as Abu Mohammed al-Julani—emerged as the central figure in this upheaval. Once affiliated with al-Qaeda, he now presents himself as a reinvented figure promoting pluralism in Syria. Despite attempts at apparent moderation, doubts persist about the true democratic nature of his intentions. Previously labeled a terrorist by Western powers, Ahmed Hussein al-Chara has, through this coup, paradoxically stepped into the fold of Western normalcy.

According to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, this historic shift in the region “offers opportunities” but is “not without risk.” She stated that “Europe is ready to support the safeguarding of national unity and the reconstruction of a Syrian state that protects all minorities.”

A similar tone was heard in the United States, where President Joe Biden declared from the White House: “The Assad regime has finally fallen,” calling its downfall a “fundamental act of justice.” He added: “This is a moment of historic opportunity for the long-suffering Syrian people to build a better future for a country they are proud of. But it is also a moment of risk and uncertainty.”

In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described it as a “historic day for the Middle East.” According to him, “The collapse of the Assad regime, the tyranny of Damascus, offers great opportunities—but also carries significant dangers.”

Taking a step back from these Western celebrations, it is imperative not to be lulled into the illusions of euphoria that often follow the victory of a former enemy turned ally by the randomness of geopolitical circumstances. Indeed, such unexpected alliances often bring deep disappointment. The past experiments of imported pseudo-democracy in Iraq or Libya should serve as stark reminders and prompt caution in the face of the growing uncertainty looming over Syria.