A Few Weeks Before the U.S. Presidential Election: Joe Biden’s Withdrawal and Kamala Harris’s Endorsement—What Future for Transatlantic Relations?

Just weeks ahead of the upcoming U.S. presidential election scheduled for November, outgoing President Joe Biden has announced that he will not seek a second term in office. While his withdrawal opens the path for a new Democratic nominee, the president has publicly endorsed his loyal partner and current Vice President, Kamala Harris. The potential Democratic candidate boasts several key strengths: not only does she have deep knowledge of the inner workings of American domestic politics—having served as San Francisco District Attorney from 2004 to 2011, then as California Attorney General from 2011 to 2017—she also made history as the first woman and the first Black person to lead the judiciary of the most populous state in the U.S. She later served as a U.S. Senator from California before becoming Vice President. As both a woman and a person of mixed heritage, Kamala Harris holds symbolic and demographic appeal.

Nonetheless, the outcome of the upcoming U.S. election will inevitably shape the future of transatlantic relations. On the Republican side stands Donald Trump, who has clearly stated that the war in Ukraine is a problem for Europeans to solve. He has even declared that there is an ocean between the U.S. and Europe, implying that Ukraine should fall under the purview of European leaders. In contrast, European leaders—who have grown accustomed to consistent American support under the Biden administration—are now placing their hopes in a potential Kamala Harris victory. Given her close working relationship with Joe Biden, she is seen as more likely to ensure continuity in foreign policy. Indeed, many members of Biden’s foreign policy team would likely remain in place under a Harris presidency (according to Sudha David-Wilp, director of the Berlin office of the German Marshall Fund). On international issues, Kamala Harris may distinguish herself from Biden particularly with regard to the Middle East, where she has expressed more nuanced positions than the current president.

One thing is certain: the upcoming U.S. presidential election will be closely watched around the world, given its potentially significant impact on the global geopolitical landscape.